I don't do these predictions this far out...usually I take them on a primary by primary basis. I like to read a lot about them, I love to follow the news on them and then decide. However, I'm taking a shot at a long term prediction for the Presidential race.
Months ago, I said in comments on various threads that I thought Huckabee would emerge as a real threat. Perhaps not the only one, but a genuine player. I did not, and still don't see, GOP primary voters voting for Guiliani, the front runner at the time and the current national front runner (though the Howard Dean collapse taught me not to read too much into that). I just don't see it. The man is tainted on so many levels and within the next month, the GOP candidates will start assailing him on foreign policy just as the Democrats have, to try and peel those voters away from him. Social issues, he's pleased hardly anyone.
Barely two months ago, Huckabee registered 3% in IA. It was his best showing. Even after the Ames Straw Poll, his numbers barely moved. that has all changed. He has climbed in IA largely on strength of message and appeal...let's face it, it isn't money. Huckabee had less than a million dollars earlier this year....at the end of September, FEC reports show him at about 436K COH.
None of that seems to matter. He has steadily risen in the polls in IA. Mitt Romney is under attack publicly for his flip flops, and subtly, for his religion. Huckabee will WIN the IA caucuses. The conservatives have no one else. Thompson is a major flop. Guiliani is a non starter. Romney is a compromised conservative. Many still haven't gotten over McCain's "agents of intolerance" comments directed at Robertson and Falwell last time.
Huckabee has played this beautifully so far..I can't stand the man's politics and positions, but he's done this part incredibly well, and he was royally helped by the withdrawal of Sam Brownback. Huckabee's conservative credentials are not suspect with the GOP primary faithful. He hates abortion rights....for him there is no compromise or middle ground...no life of the mother exceptions for him...mothers threatened with death should die in his mind. Same with stem cell research. He doesn't believe evolution exists (my first true "give me a break moment.") Global warming? Doesn't exist. Firearms? NRA all the way. What about for kids? NRA all the way. School Vouchers? Supports them. Thoughts about the Clintons. Can't talk about them, they are the devil and he is a minister after all. the more I watch, the more obvious it is...THIS IS THE GOP'S MAIN MAN!
The man has been damn smart and the money and popularity are only going to increase for him. He's a bit like Clinton in 1992. Their voters aren't satisfied with any of the others. No one though Tsongas could win. Jerry Brown was making his 4 or 5th run (can we say not credible??) and Clinton emerged as the best there was. Huckabee is doing the same thing.
Economic Republicans are not a force in the primary. Grover Norquist can blab all he wants, he gets very few votes for any Presidential candidate during the primary. for the GOP, it's all about who can "out-religion" everyone else....and Huckabee has played that card damn well and effectively.
He didn't get in as the frontrunner (Clinton, McCain, Guiliani). He didn't get in to save the party (Fred Thompson). He didn't get in to get his name in the paper (Dennis Kucinich, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul). He got in, and slowly but surely, spread out his credentials...and it has worked. If Huckabee wins the nomination, as a future political scientist, I would love to study his campaign and find out how he did it. The only traditional advantage he has is that he's not a Senator. But neither is Bill Richardson, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, neither was Jim Gilmore when he got in. He hasn't raised squat for money.
My official prediction is that Huckabee will win the Republican nomination. I'll say it again, he is THE MOST serious threat to a Democratic victory in November. The religious conservatives will be happy and they still dominate the party. He has the chance to unite the GOP against us (not saying he'll be successful, but he certainly could be) If Huckabee is the nominee, we'll have a fight on our hands....and I honestly think he will win the nomination. We must be ready...for that will be a fight!
