Wow. The wait is finally over. The IA caucuses are over and the 2008 Presidential race has begun. I was watching the caucus results on Fox News (what was on at the restaurant I work at, don't blame me) and there were certain things that surprised me and certain things that I expected. But now the question is, what do each of the 3 candidates need to do now? For those of you supporting others, I think it's fairly clear, with Dodd and Biden and Gravel out, this is a 3 person race...Kucinich and Richardson can pretend all they want, but they are dead in the water, so this analysis will be limited to those 3. Negative comments on the candidates themselves will not be found here, though their strategies may merit some criticism!! Just to give you a heads up!!
First on Obama: I am not surprised he won, I am surprised how convincingly he won. He beat Clinton by 9% and Edwards by 8. I was honestly expecting an Edwards win, but an Obama win with Edwards (or Clinton) a strong second would not have surprised me either. But he beat them both and beat them good. The only downside is (and it's hardly a downside) is that this victory will certainly raise his expectations for NH. The political press will dismiss this win if he doesn't follow it up in NH and I think so will voters....that doesn't mean they'll reject him, that just means they'll still consider who else is still standing. Just look at 1992. Clinton didn't win til GA...one reason that Tsongas couldn't align many voters (besides his electability issue) was that many of the early primaries were not clear victories. Harkin won his home state, Clinton stole the NH news and Harkin and Kerry did well in SD, and Tsongas had to share victory with Jerry Brown in Maine. Clinton didn't win til Georgia and South Carolina...but we all know how it turned out. With a much more narrow schedule, Obama can avoid that scenario with a big win in NH...which will essentially knock Clinton out of the race, and possibly Edwards depending on his finish as well. Obama has got the momentum and the good press....but now he'll also have the bulls eye and he'll have to beat the expectations game. Can he do it? Yes! Will he? We'll see!!
On Edwards: This is the toughest one of the 3 to figure out. Did he win or did he lose? My personal thought is that he dealt himself into the game, but did not wrest control the way an IA win would have. An IA win for Edwards would've completely thrown this race up in the air. As it stands, he's still with us. First the positives. Edwards did what he had to do!! He beat Hillary Clinton. No matter how you try and spin it, it was not a 2 way tie for 2nd (Sorry Joe Lieberman, that was ludicrous then, it's ludicrous now)....Edwards beat her, which was absolutley essential. He should get a decent influx of money, as well as momentum from some fence sitting voters who are unsure of Obama. Does he have a chance in NH? I don't think so, but all is not lost. The reason I think so is b/c Clinton is likely to turn up the heat on Obama. If she does that, goes hard negative, it's likely that Edwards could be the beneficiary rather than Clinton herself. What does he have to do? I think he needs a solid finish in NH? Right now he's double digits behind even the 2nd place Obama, not to mention the 20 points behind Clinton in that poll from a couple of days ago. He needs to battle his way in and keep Clintons totals low. If he does that, he could still have a sincere shot at the nomination. He really needed a win here, not just an ok performance. But he did what he had to do...he beat Hillary. That's enough to keep going. We'll see what happens next.
On Clinton: There is no way to spin it...IA was a bad result for her. The perceived front runner has, for the 2nd time in a row, finished 3rd in the IA caucuses. This would not have hurt her as badly if the early returns had held the whole night, when they were all within 2 pts of each other. But she got beat and beat soundly. Her experienced theme was rejected. Her argument that only she can beat the GOP machine was rejected. Her money, her consultants and her husband Bill could not drag her over the finish line. Clinton, I believe, was her own worst enemy in IA. When she got busted planting a question at an event, she tried to pass it off as everyone does it, which didn't work. The 3rd grade essay flap (not really news except for its stupidity) simply made her look like the candidate with the weak arguments. Not to mention desperate!! What can she do? I'm honestly not sure. This crowded early schedule will hurt her if she does not win in New Hampshire. If she finishes second in NH, she'd better hope for Edwards to win (which won't happen, he's too far back for that). If Obama beats her in NH, if it's anything like the solid IA victory, then I don't seen where Clinton can make it up. I really don't. If she wins NH, she'll have a good two weeks before FL, MI, SC and damn near a month before the big day on February 5th. NH is now ultra important for her. If she doesn't win, she's done. If she lets Edwards stay in the game, she's done. She has to win, and win solidly. She has to make the memories of IA disappear in the eyes of the press and the voters. A second place finish, no matter how strong, won't do that. I think she HAS to win.
Let me know what you think. This is for honest debate and analysis. Please keep your "Clinton is a witch," "Obama is a weakling," "Edwards is a hick," crap out of this diary. Read my diaries and you'll see I don't think highly of Clinton, but this diary does not go after her. I am merely interested in the results of the caucuses and seeing what each candidate has to do to finish better.